Estonian car market in September 2026: sales up 41%
In September, 1,670 new passenger cars were registered in Estonia, 41% more than a year earlier and only 5% below September 2023, before the car tax.
Electric car sales rose 174% year on year and their share reached 11%. Škoda stayed in first place, while Peugeot climbed to third.
Key facts
- In September 2026, 1,670 new passenger cars were registered in Estonia, 41% more than in September 2025.
- The most registered brand in September 2026 was Škoda (255) and the most registered model the Škoda Octavia (95).
- In September 2026, electric cars had an 11.1% share and diesel cars a 10.4% share.
- BMW led the premium segment in September 2026 with 94 cars.
- Autoportaal.ee forecasts around 20,000 new passenger car registrations in Estonia in 2026.
The market grew 41% year on year
According to the Estonian Transport Administration, 1,670 new passenger cars were registered in Estonia in September 2026. In September 2025 the figure was 1,184, meaning the market grew by 486 cars, or 41%.
The year-on-year comparison is still distorted by the 2025 slump, when the new car tax and registration fee held back purchases. A more realistic picture comes from comparing with September 2023, before the car tax. In September 2023, 1,762 new cars were registered, so September 2026 was only 5% lower.
Top brands
| Brand | 09/2026 | 09/2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Škoda | 255 | 193 | +32% |
| Toyota | 225 | 162 | +39% |
| Peugeot | 178 | 29 | +514% |
| Volkswagen | 150 | 64 | +134% |
| Renault | 101 | 184 | -45% |
| BMW | 94 | 44 | +114% |
| Kia | 93 | 83 | +12% |
| Opel | 62 | 6 | +933% |
| Dacia | 56 | 96 | -42% |
| Citroën | 50 | 23 | +117% |
In September 2026, Škoda held the lead with 255 cars and Toyota was second with 225. Both grew by more than 30% year on year.
Peugeot made the biggest jump, rising from 29 to 178 registrations and taking third place. Other Stellantis brands also grew strongly: Opel from 6 to 62 and Citroën from 23 to 50. Volkswagen increased from 64 to 150.
Renault and Dacia declined. Renault registered 101 cars (184 a year earlier) and dropped from second to fifth place. Dacia fell from 96 to 56.
Top models
| Model | 09/2026 | 09/2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Škoda Octavia | 95 | 77 | +23% |
| Peugeot 5008 | 87 | 4 | +2075% |
| Škoda Kodiaq | 79 | 42 | +88% |
| Toyota Corolla | 69 | 42 | +64% |
| Volkswagen Tiguan | 60 | 10 | +500% |
| Toyota RAV4 | 55 | 75 | -27% |
| Opel Grandland | 47 | 3 | +1467% |
| Renault Clio | 40 | 39 | +3% |
| Kia Sportage | 35 | 49 | -29% |
| Peugeot 408 | 31 | 0 | new |
The most popular model in September 2026 was the Škoda Octavia with 95 registrations. The Peugeot 5008 rose to second with 87, up from just 4 a year earlier. The Škoda Kodiaq was third with 79.
The Volkswagen Tiguan (60) and Opel Grandland (47) also made the top ten. The Toyota RAV4 (55) and Kia Sportage (35) both registered fewer cars than a year ago.
The biggest decliners were the Renault Captur, with 9 registrations across all versions (55 a year earlier), and the Renault Symbioz (4, down from 43). The Dacia Sandero fell from 35 to 9.
Compared with pre-tax 2023
In terms of total volume the market has almost recovered, but the brand mix has changed noticeably. Toyota's market share was 22.7% in September 2023 and 13.5% in September 2026.
| Brand | 09/2026 | 09/2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Škoda | 255 | 234 | +9% |
| Toyota | 225 | 400 | -44% |
| Peugeot | 178 | 32 | +456% |
| Volkswagen | 150 | 60 | +150% |
| Audi | 43 | 160 | -73% |
| Subaru | 21 | 93 | -77% |
| Nissan | 12 | 78 | -85% |
| Tesla | 1 | 22 | -95% |
Audi and the Japanese brands have lost the most ground. Audi registered 160 new cars in September 2023 and 43 now. Subaru fell from 93 to 21 and Nissan from 78 to 12. The winners are European volume brands: Škoda, Volkswagen and Peugeot are all above their 2023 levels.
Premium brands: BMW is the new leader
Premium brands registered 210 new cars in Estonia in September 2026, 42% more than in September 2025. Their market share held steady year on year at 12.5%. Compared with pre-tax 2023, however, the premium segment is 32% smaller and its share has fallen from 17.5% to 12.6%.
| Brand | 09/2026 | 09/2025 | 09/2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 94 | 44 | 60 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 46 | 25 | 45 |
| Audi | 43 | 40 | 160 |
| Lexus | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| Porsche | 9 | 19 | 21 |
| Land Rover | 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Total | 210 | 148 | 308 |
BMW is the only premium brand clearly above its 2023 level, with 94 cars against 60. Its most popular models were the BMW X3 (30) and X5 (17). Mercedes-Benz is back at its 2023 level. Audi, by contrast, registered 160 cars in September 2023 and 43 now, dropping from premium leader to third. Porsche and Land Rover (including Range Rover) sales are at most half of what they were in 2023.
| Premium model | 09/2026 | 09/2025 |
|---|---|---|
| BMW X3 | 30 | 2 |
| Audi Q3 | 22 | 3 |
| BMW X5 | 17 | 8 |
| Mercedes-Benz GLC | 15 | 7 |
| BMW X7 | 10 | 6 |
| BMW X6 | 9 | 3 |
| Porsche Cayenne | 9 | 7 |
| BMW iX3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mercedes-Benz V-Class | 7 | 1 |
| Audi Q5 | 7 | 17 |
Five of the top ten premium models are BMWs. The BMW X3 was registered 30 times, compared with just twice a year earlier. The Audi Q3 rose to second, while the Audi Q5 fell from 17 to 7. Different versions of the same model are combined in the table, for example the petrol and plug-in hybrid BMW X3.
Audi distorts the premium segment's decline compared with 2023. Audi's 2023 figure was inflated by large fleet deals; among others, Bolt Drive expanded its Estonian fleet with new Audi models that year. Excluding Audi, the other premium brands registered 167 cars in September, against 148 in September 2023. That is 13% more than before the car tax. From the start of the year to 3 October, the premium segment without Audi is 15% below 2023, the same as the market as a whole (16%).
Electric car sales up 174%
186 new electric cars were registered in Estonia in September 2026, compared with 68 in September 2025. The electric share of total sales rose from 5.7% to 11.1%.
| Brand | 09/2026 | 09/2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 31 | 2 |
| Renault | 25 | 4 |
| Škoda | 16 | 6 |
| Kia | 15 | 6 |
| Subaru | 14 | 0 |
| BMW | 13 | 3 |
| BYD | 12 | 12 |
Toyota led the electric segment with 31 cars, up from just 2 a year earlier. Renault was second with 25 and Škoda third with 16. BYD registered 12 electric cars, the same as a year ago, but its share of the electric segment fell from 17.6% to 6.5%.
| Electric car | 09/2026 |
|---|---|
| Toyota bZ4X Touring | 23 |
| Renault Scenic E-Tech | 22 |
| Subaru e-Outback | 13 |
| Škoda Epiq | 9 |
| BMW iX3 | 7 |
| BYD Sealion 7 | 7 |
The best-selling electric car was the Toyota bZ4X Touring with 23 registrations, just ahead of the Renault Scenic E-Tech with 22. The Subaru e-Outback (13) has taken the place of the petrol Outback, which registered 33 cars a year ago and none this September. Among newcomers, the Škoda Epiq recorded 9 registrations. Tesla registered just one car in September.
Diesel sales doubled
174 new diesel passenger cars were registered in Estonia in September 2026, compared with 84 in September 2025. The diesel share of total sales rose from 7.1% to 10.4%.
| Brand | 09/2026 | 09/2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Škoda | 48 | 38 |
| Volkswagen | 31 | 12 |
| Peugeot | 26 | 1 |
| Audi | 16 | 1 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 11 | 2 |
| Motorhomes | 10 | 10 |
| All diesels | 174 | 84 |
Growth was driven by Škoda (48), Volkswagen (31) and Peugeot (26). Audi diesels rose from 1 to 16. Motorhomes accounted for 10 diesels in both years, so the growth came from regular passenger cars. Toyota diesels fell from 9 to 4.
Chinese brands gain market share
Chinese car brands registered 87 new cars in Estonia in September 2026, up from 35 in September 2025. Their market share rose from 3% to 5.2%.
| Brand | 09/2026 | 09/2025 |
|---|---|---|
| BYD | 26 | 21 |
| MG | 23 | 5 |
| Lynk & Co | 14 | 4 |
| Chery | 10 | 0 |
| Forthing | 5 | 0 |
| Others | 9 | 5 |
| Total | 87 | 35 |
BYD was the largest Chinese brand with 26 cars. MG grew fastest, from 5 to 23 registrations. Chery and Forthing, which had no registrations in September last year, were new additions.
Year-on-year comparison and 2026 forecast
From 1 January to 3 October 2026, 14,923 new passenger cars were registered in Estonia. That is 55% more than in the same period of 2025, but 6% fewer than in 2024 and 16% fewer than in 2023.
| Year | 1 Jan–3 Oct | Full year |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17,699 | 22,887 |
| 2024 | 15,892 | 25,484 |
| 2025 | 9,597 | 13,148 |
| 2026 | 14,923 | ~20,000 (forecast) |
The 2024 full-year figure was inflated by a buying rush ahead of the car tax. 9,592 new cars were registered in the last three months of that year, almost as many as in the first nine months of 2025 combined.
Autoportaal.ee expects the market to reach around 20,000 new car registrations in 2026. If the end of the year follows the 2025 pattern, the total will be about 20,400. The 2023 pattern points to about 19,300, and September’s pace to about 19,800. A total of 20,000 would be 52% more than in 2025, but 13% less than in 2023.
Toyota leads 2026 so far with 3,068 cars (20.6% market share), followed by Škoda (2,346) and Renault (1,288).
Autoportaal.ee view
“The market has largely recovered from the car tax shock,” says Ando Rahu, founder of Autoportaal.ee. “But there is still a long way to go to 30,000 new cars a year.”
“An interesting fact is that diesel registrations grew 107% year on year, more than 2.5 times faster than the market as a whole,” Rahu adds.
Summary
September 2026 confirms that the new car market is recovering, with monthly volume only 5% below the pre-tax level. But the market looks different from 2023: Toyota and Audi have lost ground, European volume brands and Chinese manufacturers have taken it over, and the electric share has doubled in a year. At the same time, Toyota, which lost share in the overall market, has become the leader in electric cars.
Frequently asked questions
How many new cars were registered in Estonia in September 2026?
According to the Estonian Transport Administration, 1,670 new passenger cars were registered in Estonia in September 2026. That is 41% more than in September 2025 (1,184) and 5% fewer than in September 2023 (1,762).
What was the most popular car brand and model in Estonia in September 2026?
The most registered brand was Škoda with 255 cars, followed by Toyota (225) and Peugeot (178). The most popular model was the Škoda Octavia with 95 cars.
Has the Estonian car market recovered from the car tax?
Partly. In September 2026, new car registrations were only 5% below pre-tax September 2023. From the start of the year to 3 October, however, the market is 16% smaller than in the same period of 2023.
What is the share of electric cars in Estonia's new car market?
In September 2026, electric cars had an 11.1% share, or 186 cars. In September 2025 the share was 5.7%. Toyota led the electric segment with 31 cars.
How many new cars will be registered in Estonia in 2026?
Around 20,000, according to the Autoportaal.ee forecast. For comparison, 13,148 new passenger cars were registered in 2025 and 22,887 in 2023.
What is the most popular premium car brand in Estonia?
In September 2026, the most popular premium brand was BMW with 94 cars, followed by Mercedes-Benz (46) and Audi (43). BMW's most popular model was the X3.
Autoportaal.ee market reviews are based solely on first-registration data for new vehicles from the Estonian Transport Administration. Exports and deregistrations are not taken into account.
See also: New cars on Autoportaal · European new car market in August 2026
